Ruptured Trade | S&P Global

2022-05-29 11:32:50 By : Ms. Sally Li

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With supply chains suffering under the weight of war, pandemic, energy prices, inflation, and geopolitical stress, a fundamental realignment of global trade begins to take shape.

The COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai is impacting China’s energy and commodity markets, along with the country’s overall economic growth. The lockdown also has the potential to extend global supply chain disruptions.

Without a quick end to the conflict on the horizon, the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are being seen in equities, energy, global trade and commodities markets.

With supply chains suffering under the weight of war, pandemic, energy prices, inflation, and geopolitical stress, a fundamental realignment of global trade begins to take shape.

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Russia's war on Ukraine has already displaced more than 2 million b/d from the world's second-biggest crude exporter, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights, as both sanctions and boycotts hit flows. The collapse in demand for Russian crude in the region has already seen Urals values hit record lows. EU plans to ban Russian oil imports by year-end could hit up to 3.5 million b/d of crude and products if fully implemented.

EU's Proposed Ban on Russian Crude Likely to Reshape Global Oil Market

EU plans announced May 4 to halt Russian oil imports by year-end is expected to reshape global energy flows and add to price pressure as buyers race to secure new supplies.

Hopes Rise for West of Shetland Drilling Rig Activity

Optimism is making a comeback among North Sea drilling contractors, according to the April edition of S&P Global's North Sea Rig Report. There is finally some recognition by UK Government of the need to support domestic hydrocarbons production as part of the energy transition, given added importance by the aim of reducing imports from Russia.

Biofuels Industry Pushes for Greater Use in Europe to Reduce Reliance on Russia

Industry leaders strongly stressed increased biofuels consumption through blending mandates and other measures in a bid to make Europe energy independent and reduce reliance on Russia at S&P Global Commodity Insights' European biofuels conference April 28.

India emerged as the largest buyer of Russian Urals crude in April enticed by hefty discounts, as several of the grade's regular European customers have boycotted this oil following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

India Ponders Brazilian Term Crude Deals Amid Supply Squeeze

India is eyeing term crude deals with Brazil but analysts said high shipment costs, long sailing period and limited bandwidth with the South American producer to commit plentiful volumes beyond its traditional Asian customers will keep the size of any new term deals relatively small. As India looks to diversify its crude buying, expectations of signing term deals with the Latin American supplier has grown after a visit of Brazilian Energy minister Bento Albuquerque to India in April. Albuquerque held discussions with Indian petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri to explore the possibility of long-term crude oil contracts among other energy cooperation opportunities.

The Platts Market Data - Shipping dataset provides access to the full breadth and depth of our shipping market data, including benchmarks and contract price assessments.

The market for battery anode raw material graphite is set to move into deficit by mid-decade on rising electric vehicle demand, with a number of companies looking to establish graphite mines and processing facilities outside traditional supplier China in a bid to diversify the supply chain. Natural graphite is forecast to move into a structural deficit as soon as 2023-24, as global demand growth for processed graphite, also known as spherical graphite, begins to outstrip supply, EIT InnoEnergy and European Battery Alliance Policy Manager Ilka von Dalwigk told S&P Global Commodity Insights. She highlighted forecasts from UBS, which estimates a natural graphite deficit of 3.7 million mt in 2030, representing some 37% of the market.

Trade Cases Have Boosted U.S. Aluminum Investment, Lowered Imports: Association

The successful implementation of targeted trade enforcement on common alloy aluminum sheet since 2021 has reduced unfairly traded imports in the US and has encouraged the domestic aluminum industry to invest in capacity expansion, the Aluminum Association said May 3.

Japan Companies Accelerate Move to Replace Russia Coal with Australian Supply, Others

Japanese utilities and manufacturers are stepping up efforts to seek alternative supplies to Russian coal from Australia, Indonesia and Vietnam, among others, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said May 17, following the country's decision to phase out Russian coal imports.

High Prices Lure Uranium Explorers to the U.S. — Thor Mining CEO

Rising uranium prices and growing interest in nuclear energy have spurred U.K.-headquartered Thor Mining PLC to advance drilling at a project in Colorado

Asia's appetite for US crude posted positive growth in the first quarter despite lucrative Russian offers, but North American supplies could face more competition in the second quarter as refiners will continue picking up barrels from the non-OPEC supplier until they remain outside sanctions and are available at substantial discounts. But analysts added even if Russian crude inflows to Asia pick up substantially in Q2, it won't alter trade flows dramatically since the share of Russian crude in some Asian countries is traditionally small. For example, it was less than 1% in India's total crude imports in 2021. "In the recent past, USA has become a major crude oil source for India, supplying almost $13 billion worth of energy imports, with almost 7.3% of market share of crude oil imports," according to a recent Indian government statement. "Energy purchases from Russia remain miniscule in comparison to India's total consumption." According to the latest data from the US Census Bureau, total US crude oil exports rose year on year by 544,000 b/d year on year to 3.3 million b/d in Q1. Asia accounted for 46% of those exports, with volumes rising to 90,000 b/d year on year to 1.5 million b/d in that period. India was the top destination of US crudes over the first two months, with shipments of 476,000 b/d, but US crude exports to India dropped to 229,000 b/d in March. "With India taking less US crude, other Asian and European refiners will look to import more from the US as more crudes will be available following significant SPR releases, in addition to growing domestic production," said Lim Jit Yang, adviser for Platts Analytics at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Inflows to China, South Korea Among other Asian buyers, China's crude imports from the US fell 30.3% year on year to 3.33 million mt in Q1, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Imports from Russia also fell 10.8% to 19.05 million mt in Q1 of this year, compared with Q1 of 2021.

Japan Mulls Using Public Finance for U.S. LNG Expansion: Minister

Japan is considering providing public finance to help expand US LNG projects, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Haguida said May 10, as the country moves to phase out its dependency on Russian energy.

Engie, Gunvor Agree to Long-Term Deals to Buy U.S. LNG Amid High Spot Prices

French utility Engie has agreed to a 15-year deal to buy 1.75 million mt/year of supply on a free-on-board basis from NextDecade's proposed Rio Grande LNG export facility in Texas, while Swiss commodity trader Gunvor has agreed to a 20-year FOB deal to buy 2 million mt/year of supply from Energy Transfer's proposed Lake Charles LNG export facility in Louisiana.

Geopolitics Demand Natural Gas — And Energy Transition: TC Energy CEO

TC Energy CEO Francois Poirier talked up global natural gas supply security and energy transition — and the Calgary-based midstream company's embrace of both — during a first-quarter earnings call April 29.

South Korea On Course To Slash Russian Crude Imports, Takes Ample U.S. Cargoes As Alternative

South Korea is on course to sharply reduce crude imports from Russia with shipments from the OPEC+ producer tumbling by more than 40% year on year in March, as refiners aim to avoid trade, logistics and financial complications, while light sweet U.S. crude is considered the country's best option to fill any Russian supply gaps.

Europe and the G-7’s pledge to sanction imports of Russian oil is raising questions over how a future global economy may operate.

John Anton, Peter Tirschwell, and Nathalie Wlodarczyk join the Essential Podcast to talk about supply chains, what's gone wrong, and what—if anything—can be done to get them back on track. The Essential Podcast from S&P Global is dedicated to sharing essential intelligence with those working in and affected by financial markets. Host Nathan Hunt focuses on those issues of immediate importance to global financial markets—macroeconomic trends, the credit cycle, climate risk, ESG, global trade, and more—in interviews with subject matter experts from around the world.

The Ships dataset, originated from IHS Markit, provides indispensable information and insight to companies around the world enabling them to address challenges while developing new opportunities and staying competitive.

Even less than a year ago, few people could have imagined that the largest export market for Thai rice in 2022 would be Iraq.

Brazil, China Conclude Key Negotiations on Starting Corn Trade

Brazil and China have completed some key negotiations on starting Brazilian corn exports to China, according to a statement released May 23 by Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply.

Ukraine Farmers Switching to Beans from Corn on Export Headwinds: Agribusiness Club

Farmers in Ukraine currently engaged in spring crop planting amid the ongoing conflict may have switched some of their corn acres to soybeans in the current season, general director of Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, Roman Slaston told S&P Global Commodity Insights in an interview.